Knowing how doctors calculate the odds can help you to beat them.

Imagine that your doctor scans your medical records, then taps a few pieces of data into a computer. In less than a second, software generates a single number that you’re likely to recall for the rest of your life.

“If we don’t make some changes,” your doctor says, “there’s a 30 percent chance you’ll have a heart attack within the next 10 years” — even though you had no idea you were at any risk of heart disease. …

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